Of course, every Eurovision fan in the world is trying to make the same prediction at the moment - and so is the media, who are often embarrassingly wrong (Armenia, Guardian? Really?)
The best way to get an idea of who'll come out on top is to take a look at the bookies odds (though they also often get the top spot wrong). But every year a country that's in their top 5 always wins, so the winner's bound to be one of the following (in order of current popularity with the bookies):
They've stayed strong at the top of the odds for months now. Måns has a slick show which is bound to be memorable, and his song has a great modern sound. But then Sweden was also the bookies' favourite to win for a long time last year as well, and they ended up finishing third. Also, Måns doesn't have the greatest draw in the running order, performing at number 10. A lot of punters and experts are still calling a Swedish victory though, so we could very well be heading back to Scandinavia next year.
To my mind, Russia is now the biggest threat to all other challengers. They have a powerful song, dramatic presentation, stunning singer and great draw (25th). But I really, really hope they don't win. I know, Eurovision's supposed to be apolitical and I can't blame Polina for Russia's abominable behaviour over the past year (Ukraine, MH17, gay and transgender rights etc. etc.) but I do think that if the contest went back to Russia next year Putin would hijack the Eurovision goodwill for propaganda purposes, just like he did when they hosted back in 2009. Eurovision die-hards are already talking of 'Sochi 2016' like it's a done deal (and we know how well the last international spectacle in Putin's favourite resort town went down), but just as many fans are talking of not attending due to safety concerns. I always knew Eurovision was a big deal in the gay community, but when I was in Copenhagen last year I saw first hand just how much they enjoyed having the freedom to celebrate the contest in a peaceful and loving environment. This would not be possible in Russia - in 2009 authorities brutally cracked down on a gay pride parade through Moscow during the contest, and since then the anti-gay rhetoric has only stepped up (last year Russian MPs urged a boycott after Conchita won, describing her as a 'pervert'). I know there are also plenty of gay Russian fans of Eurovision, and they shouldn't have to go without hosting the contest in their own country - but honestly, they'd be able to celebrate much more openly in Stockholm (or pretty much any other European city).
If Italy wins I will eat my hat.
Over the past couple of days I've been delighted to watch Belgium's odds steadily dropping - as you know, it's my favourite this year. There are various conspiracy theories about this dramatic fall, the most prominent being that leaked results of Semi-Final 1 showed Loïc performed very strongly. I think this song will be popular amongst fans for its modern, Sia/Lorde vibe and amongst juries whose new criteria this year is 'hit potential'. Loïc's performing at number 13, just after Guy Sebastian, so I'm not sure I can see a Belgian win - but if it happened it wouldn't be a bad thing at all.
I covered off on Guy's chances yesterday - and of course I'd love for him to win - but at this stage I don't think he'll do it. But then, we're a complete wildcard this year so who knows what will happen...
So, after all that, what's my final call?
Russia.
But I really hope I'm wrong.
