But the only answer I can give is...maybe?
Currently, Guy Sebastian is sitting fourth with the bookies, behind Sweden, Russia and Italy. However it's a fairly open contest this year, and that doesn't necessarily mean that he's got no chance.
So here are some of the arguments for and against an Australian win in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Pros
- The novelty factor: As the wildcard, we have a unique quality in this year's contest that makes us stand out from the pack. If we don't win, that's it - we're never coming back to Eurovision - so therefore we've got a great narrative, and Eurovision viewers are suckers for a good back story (see Conchita's win last year). Plus the contest organisers, the EBU, have been busy pimping Australia's participation all week, particularly in the Semi-Finals. They love the publicity our participation is generating - pretty much all the Eurovision media coverage this year has focused on Australia, in much the same way last year's media narrative was all about the bearded lady.
- Guy Sebastian: Regardless of what Australians may think about our choice of entrant, Guy has a solid international profile and there's no denying that Europe is impressed that we're sending such a heavy-hitter to represent us. It shows that we mean business, unlike the UK who, despite possessing a plethora of global music stars, have instead sent a Mick Jagger impersonator and reject from The Voice. Guy is getting loads of attention in Vienna, from fans, media and even the other contestants who are all praising his talent and clamouring for selfies.
- The song: It's an upbeat number sung by a bloke with a great voice. It stands out from the interminable dreary ballads this year, and will make people get up and dance at Eurovision parties across Europe.
- Disgruntled Europeans: While the EBU is loving the great PR and plenty of fans have welcomed Australia with open arms, there are just as many people who are unhappy we've been included - both die-hard Eurovision fans and casual viewers. Judging from the reactions on social media this week, a lot of people are still confused about why we're even there. The most common refrains are "It's EURO-vision!" and "Australia's not even in Europe!" Plus some media commentators have been less than complimentary about our inclusion, most notably BBC presenter Graham Norton. Admittedly, that's probably got a lot to do with the traditional rivalry between the two countries (plus the UK knowing that we're going to get way more points than them).
- 'Big 5' syndrome: It's a pretty established fact in Eurovision circles that the Big 5+1, or the countries that automatically get a pass into the Grand Final (UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, France + last year's winner), are actually at a disadvantage. This is because they only get to perform their songs once, and don't have the benefit of grabbing people's attention during the Semi-Finals. Since the system was introduced in 2004, only one of the Big 5 has won after performing their song only once - Germany in 2010. This year, due to our wildcard status, we've also been given a free pass into the Grand Final. So audiences will have already seen (and loved) two of Guy's main rivals, Sweden and Russia, and he may not have enough of a chance to make an impression.
- The running order: Guy was drawn in the first half of the Grand Final, traditionally the least advantageous half - as the theory goes that the songs that perform later in the night stick in voters' memories more. He will perform at number 12 on the night, which isn't actually the worst (Conchita won singing at number 11 last year). However, all of the up-tempo entries - including favourite Sweden - have been drawn in the first half of the final, meaning all the ballads will be in the second half. Russia is performing third last - usually a great slot - and Italy is on last, which is why the bookies are favouring them at the moment.
- Voting: This is perhaps the factor that makes the contest so unpredictable this year. Australia's never been allowed to vote before, and people haven't been able to vote for us before, so no one knows how this will impact on Eurovision's traditional voting patterns. Where will Australia pick up votes? Who are our friends in Europe? Many predict we'll fit in with the established Western European voting blocs, gaining votes from the likes of the UK, Ireland and Sweden (Tonight Again is already in the Top 10 iTunes chart there). But who knows - Guy's been getting attention from right across the continent, and we just might pick up some votes from Eastern Europe - particularly because they may have less political barriers towards Australia than they do towards Western Europe. In terms of who Australia will vote for, it's absolutely a mixed bag - I think we can expect to send some points to Greece and Serbia due to the expat populations here, but I doubt we'll be giving anything to the UK.
- The performance: You can have a fantastic song with a terrific presentation, but it can still all go wrong on the night. Guy has been battling the flu all week, and while he's confident he'll be right by the show it's still a factor to consider. Plus, while all the reports from Vienna say his stage show's pretty slick, just one choreography cock-up or botched camera angle could blow our chances of impressing the European voting public.
