Well, I was wrong - and I couldn't be more delighted!
Måns Zelmerlöw has won Eurovision 2015 for Sweden with his song Heroes. In fact, the bookies were absolutely spot on with their top five prediction: Russia came second, then Italy, Belgium and Australia finished a not-too-shabby fifth place.
For the last couple of years, the producers have tweaked the order that countries read out their votes (based on the results of the jury vote) to create the most tension - making it seem like one country's in the lead before the eventual winner surges to the top of the leaderboard. And that's certainly what happened - for the longest time, it seemed as though Russia would walk away with the contest, with Polina picking up points from right across Europe - East and West. Italy also stayed up there in contention as well, making it the most close-run count for many years.
But then about two thirds of the way through, Måns drifted to the top - and stayed there. He was eventually crowned the winner even before all countries had delivered their points, and gave a lovely shout-out to Eurovision's massive gay fanbase in his victory speech: "I just want to say that we are all heroes, not matter who we love, who we are or what we believe in." After the contest, the EBU released the full voting results - and they do make for interesting reading.
Unsurprisingly, Sweden got points from every single country, including 12 points from Australia and 10 other countries.
Russia got points across the board, but
didn't get any at all from San Marino and - more controversially - neighbour Lithuania. To my chagrin, Australia gave
them 10 points, however that was mostly because our jury ranked them first
(the televote only placed them 7th), meaning the combined score put them
second after Sweden in our overall score.
In great news for Australia, we got points from every country except Azerbaijan, the Czech Republic, Macedonia, Georgia, Montenegro and Portugal. And in most of those countries, we actually finished 11th, just missing out on points. We also got the coveted douze points from Sweden and Austria, which was a great moment to watch. Perhaps most shockingly, the UK didn't finish dead last - they got 5 points (from Ireland, Malta and San Marino - but not us) and finished 24th.
That dubious honour went to Germany and hosts Austria, who both scored the dread nul points and shared bottom place on the scoreboard. I think that was incredibly harsh - their songs were not that bad, and pretty much everyone agreed the UK's entry was a complete dog's breakfast.
So we're headed to Sweden next year - and I'm pretty excited, because I've got the bug now and am going to make sure I'm in Stockholm next May to watch it live another time!
As we count down the hours to tomorrow morning's Grand Final, I thought I'd attempt to work out who will emerge victorious.
Of course, every Eurovision fan in the world is trying to make the same prediction at the moment - and so is the media, who are often embarrassingly wrong (Armenia, Guardian? Really?)
The best way to get an idea of who'll come out on top is to take a look at the bookies odds (though they also often get the top spot wrong). But every year a country that's in their top 5 always wins, so the winner's bound to be one of the following (in order of current popularity with the bookies):
Sweden They've stayed strong at the top of the odds for months now. Måns has a slick show which is bound to be memorable, and his song has a great modern sound. But then Sweden was also the bookies' favourite to win for a long time last year as well, and they ended up finishing third. Also, Måns doesn't have the greatest draw in the running order, performing at number 10. A lot of punters and experts are still calling a Swedish victory though, so we could very well be heading back to Scandinavia next year.
Russia To my mind, Russia is now the biggest threat to all other challengers. They have a powerful song, dramatic presentation, stunning singer and great draw (25th). But I really, really hope they don't win. I know, Eurovision's supposed to be apolitical and I can't blame Polina for Russia's abominable behaviour over the past year (Ukraine, MH17, gay and transgender rights etc. etc.) but I do think that if the contest went back to Russia next year Putin would hijack the Eurovision goodwill for propaganda purposes, just like he did when they hosted back in 2009. Eurovision die-hards are already talking of 'Sochi 2016' like it's a done deal (and we know how well the last international spectacle in Putin's favourite resort town went down), but just as many fans are talking of not attending due to safety concerns. I always knew Eurovision was a big deal in the gay community, but when I was in Copenhagen last year I saw first hand just how much they enjoyed having the freedom to celebrate the contest in a peaceful and loving environment. This would not be possible in Russia - in 2009 authorities brutally cracked down on a gay pride parade through Moscow during the contest, and since then the anti-gay rhetoric has only stepped up (last year Russian MPs urged a boycott after Conchita won, describing her as a 'pervert'). I know there are also plenty of gay Russian fans of Eurovision, and they shouldn't have to go without hosting the contest in their own country - but honestly, they'd be able to celebrate much more openly in Stockholm (or pretty much any other European city).
Italy If Italy wins I will eat my hat.
Belgium Over the past couple of days I've been delighted to watch Belgium's odds steadily dropping - as you know, it's my favourite this year. There are various conspiracy theories about this dramatic fall, the most prominent being that leaked results of Semi-Final 1 showed Loïc performed very strongly. I think this song will be popular amongst fans for its modern, Sia/Lorde vibe and amongst juries whose new criteria this year is 'hit potential'. Loïc's performing at number 13, just after Guy Sebastian, so I'm not sure I can see a Belgian win - but if it happened it wouldn't be a bad thing at all.
Australia I covered off on Guy's chances yesterday - and of course I'd love for him to win - but at this stage I don't think he'll do it. But then, we're a complete wildcard this year so who knows what will happen...
As we head into Eurovision weekend, there's one question that people who know I'm obsessed about this crazy contest keep asking me: can Australia actually win?
But the only answer I can give is...maybe?
Currently, Guy Sebastian is sitting fourth with the bookies, behind Sweden, Russia and Italy. However it's a fairly open contest this year, and that doesn't necessarily mean that he's got no chance.
So here are some of the arguments for and against an Australian win in the early hours of Sunday morning.
Pros
The novelty factor: As the wildcard, we have a unique quality in this year's contest that makes us stand out from the pack. If we don't win, that's it - we're never coming back to Eurovision - so therefore we've got a great narrative, and Eurovision viewers are suckers for a good back story (see Conchita's win last year). Plus the contest organisers, the EBU, have been busy pimping Australia's participation all week, particularly in the Semi-Finals. They love the publicity our participation is generating - pretty much all the Eurovision media coverage this year has focused on Australia, in much the same way last year's media narrative was all about the bearded lady.
Guy Sebastian: Regardless of what Australians may think about our choice of entrant, Guy has a solid international profile and there's no denying that Europe is impressed that we're sending such a heavy-hitter to represent us. It shows that we mean business, unlike the UK who, despite possessing a plethora of global music stars, have instead sent a Mick Jagger impersonator and reject from The Voice. Guy is getting loads of attention in Vienna, from fans, media and even the other contestants who are all praising his talent and clamouring for selfies.
The song: It's an upbeat number sung by a bloke with a great voice. It stands out from the interminable dreary ballads this year, and will make people get up and dance at Eurovision parties across Europe.
Cons
Disgruntled Europeans: While the EBU is loving the great PR and plenty of fans have welcomed Australia with open arms, there are just as many people who are unhappy we've been included - both die-hard Eurovision fans and casual viewers. Judging from the reactions on social media this week, a lot of people are still confused about why we're even there. The most common refrains are "It's EURO-vision!" and "Australia's not even in Europe!" Plus some media commentators have been less than complimentary about our inclusion, most notably BBC presenter Graham Norton. Admittedly, that's probably got a lot to do with the traditional rivalry between the two countries (plus the UK knowing that we're going to get way more points than them).
'Big 5' syndrome: It's a pretty established fact in Eurovision circles that the Big 5+1, or the countries that automatically get a pass into the Grand Final (UK, Spain, Italy, Germany, France + last year's winner), are actually at a disadvantage. This is because they only get to perform their songs once, and don't have the benefit of grabbing people's attention during the Semi-Finals. Since the system was introduced in 2004, only one of the Big 5 has won after performing their song only once - Germany in 2010. This year, due to our wildcard status, we've also been given a free pass into the Grand Final. So audiences will have already seen (and loved) two of Guy's main rivals, Sweden and Russia, and he may not have enough of a chance to make an impression.
The running order: Guy was drawn in the first half of the Grand Final, traditionally the least advantageous half - as the theory goes that the songs that perform later in the night stick in voters' memories more. He will perform at number 12 on the night, which isn't actually the worst (Conchita won singing at number 11 last year). However, all of the up-tempo entries - including favourite Sweden - have been drawn in the first half of the final, meaning all the ballads will be in the second half. Russia is performing third last - usually a great slot - and Italy is on last, which is why the bookies are favouring them at the moment.
Unknowns
Voting: This is perhaps the factor that makes the contest so unpredictable this year. Australia's never been allowed to vote before, and people haven't been able to vote for us before, so no one knows how this will impact on Eurovision's traditional voting patterns. Where will Australia pick up votes? Who are our friends in Europe? Many predict we'll fit in with the established Western European voting blocs, gaining votes from the likes of the UK, Ireland and Sweden (Tonight Again is already in the Top 10 iTunes chart there). But who knows - Guy's been getting attention from right across the continent, and we just might pick up some votes from Eastern Europe - particularly because they may have less political barriers towards Australia than they do towards Western Europe. In terms of who Australia will vote for, it's absolutely a mixed bag - I think we can expect to send some points to Greece and Serbia due to the expat populations here, but I doubt we'll be giving anything to the UK.
The performance: You can have a fantastic song with a terrific presentation, but it can still all go wrong on the night. Guy has been battling the flu all week, and while he's confident he'll be right by the show it's still a factor to consider. Plus, while all the reports from Vienna say his stage show's pretty slick, just one choreography cock-up or botched camera angle could blow our chances of impressing the European voting public.
So there you go. I don't know how Guy will go on the night - we'll just have to wait and see at 5:00 am on Sunday. One thing's for sure though - we're bound to do better than the UK.
I thought I’d just take a moment to talk through the practicalities of how it’s all working this year, which is the first we’ve been invited to get officially involved with the contest.
Australia is able to vote in both Semi-Finals, and also in the Grand Final – but of course, we can’t vote for ourselves. If you were up at 5:00 am yesterday morning to watch the First Semi-Final broadcast like I was, you’d have seen that there are a few ways of voting: SMS, phone and via the official Eurovision app. There’s only a 15 minute voting window each broadcast, so if you’re not up super early tomorrow for the Second Semi-Final or Sunday morning for the Grand Final, you’ll miss out on your chance to vote – they’re not counting any votes that come though during SBS’s delayed night-time broadcasts this weekend. In any case, only 50 per cent of the televote counts towards the final score Australia awards anyway. The other 50 per cent is determined by Australia’s jury, which is made up of record label exec Amanda Pelman, radio host Ash London, singer (and Russell Crowe’s ex-wife) Danielle Spencer, Bluejuice frontman and music journo Jake Stone and showbiz reporting supremo Richard Wilkins. While I’m not entirely sure of the make-up of other countries’ juries, I have to say that whoever picked ours was pretty on-point. Dickie Wilkins is made for Eurovision, and Jake Stone has also had some interesting comments to make about the contest in the media. By the way, did you know Wilkins was a trained violinist? The things you learn on the internet. So, once our televoting scores are combined with the jury’s scores, Australia’s votes are divided up into the traditional 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 points which are awarded to our top ten countries. In the Semi-Finals, these are sent through to the Eurovision boffins who add them all together before the presenters announce the top ten countries who’ve scored the highest number of votes across the board. However, in the Grand Final, each country elects a spokesperson to deliver their votes in a live cross – and to be honest, this is often the most entertaining part of the night. Usually it results in mangled English, effusive thanks to the host nation and plenty of awkward moments. SBS – who have done a pretty awesome job of the whole Eurovision experience, it must be said – have chosen none other than their biggest celebrity to deliver our scores. Check out the reveal:
Lee Lin Chin is a pretty genius choice – she’s shown she has a great sense of humour, and she will no doubt be wearing something amazing. A lot of other countries also provide prominent TV presenters to deliver their scores, whereas others nominate their previous year’s Eurovision representative. Clearly the UK heard about our excellent idea to send a beloved TV personality, and have chosen Nigella Lawson to read out their scores on Saturday night. Regardless of the final result, it’s pretty exciting that Australia’s now officially part of the Eurovision universe – now let’s not muck it up by giving our douze points to Russia or something ridiculous!
Sweden – Måns Zelmerlöw – Heroes If you’re looking for the man most likely to rain on Guy Sebastian’s parade at Eurovision 2015, look no further than Måns here. He’s channelling one of his country’s biggest pop exports of the moment, Avicii, in this country-EDM mash-up, and it’s pretty slick.
But Sweden always do Eurovision well, in recent years seamlessly seguing from euphoric pop to a soaring diva ballad. That’s partly because Eurovision is such a massive deal in Sweden – their months-long selection process, Melodifestivalen, is one of the most watched TV programs of the year, and they even have a weekly TV show previewing each Eurovision entry in the lead up to the contest. I happened to be in Sweden the day after Eurovision last year, and the contest was front page news across all the news-stands (the more restrained Danes had their stories further inside the papers, even though they were hosting the contest). Heroes is well produced and catchy as hell, plus being fronted by a handsome Swede in leather trousers also doesn’t hurt its vote getting potential. It’s sat at the top of the betting odds for months now, and its unique animated stage-show will be sure to stick in peoples’ minds. So barring a huge upset, I think we’ll most likely be heading to Stockholm (or Göteborg or Malmö) in 2016. And that’s not such a bad thing.
Belgium – Loïc Nottet – Rhythm Inside I confess: this is my favourite entry this year. Do I think it’s going to win? Of course not. I’m not even entirely sure if it’ll progress past the Semi-Finals, hence why I’m previewing it now.
Loïc here is essentially a male version of avant-garde Australian singer-songwriter Sia. Don’t believe me? Then check out his incredible cover of Chandelier, which Sia herself praised on Twitter. A recent winner of The Voice Belgique, Loïc is just 18 years old – which makes his slick professionalism even more impressive. And in case you couldn’t tell from the Chandelier film clip, he’s also a trained dancer – and has some particularly edgy moves planned for the stage in Vienna. Rhythm Inside is catchy and modern, and it wouldn’t even sound out of place on Triple J. And that’s part of the problem – it’s probably too “good” for Eurovision. Will drunken audiences votes for this, or will they find it too austere and weird? Regardless, it’s my number one pick and I’ll be up at 5:00 am tomorrow to watch SBS’s live broadcast of Semi-Final 1 so I can vote like mad for it.
Azerbaijan – Elnur Hüseynov – Hour of the Wolf As regular readers will know, my favourite type of Eurovision song is a haunting Nordic ballad – preferably with violins. Unfortunately, the Scandinavians have let me down badly on that front this year: Finland’s sending ear-bursting punk, Denmark are undermining their cool image with some happy-go-lucky Ben Lee impersonators and Iceland is sending an up-tempo reimagining of Denmark’s victorious pixie from 2013. Admittedly, Norway is sending a dark, dramatic ballad – but one look at the insanely creepy video for A Monster Like Me was enough to turn me right off. So I’ve turned to the unlikely replacement option of Azerbaijan.
Now, obviously Azerbaijan is pretty much the opposite of anywhere Nordic, but Hour of the Wolf could easily have been sung by a soulful Scandinavian. It’s a big ballad with a soaring chorus, and it’s just haunting enough to linger in your memory. Sure, it’s no Scandi-noir drama theme tune, but it’s not too bad. The question is whether or not it will do any good with the voters. There used to be a time when anything Azeri was guaranteed a top 5 finish, however last year they dropped right off the radar, finishing 22nd. Now, I’m not saying that since they were accused of trying to buy votes in the 2013 contest, their success has waned, but…well, you decide.
After having a look at some of the more disappointing entries in this year’s competition, as Eurovision week begins it’s time for me to take a look at some of my favourites. As I've mentioned before, sadly it's a pretty bland year, entry-wise. There are no flat-out bonkers entries, but there are also very few stand-outs. So while I've decided not to do a top five countdown this year, there are still a couple of songs that I have no shame in turning up the volume on when they pop up on my iTunes, so read on...
While these songs aren’t necessarily bad, it’s a bit hard to see why they’re near the top of the bookies odds. Italy – Il Volo – Grande Amore Currently one of Guy Sebastian’s biggest challengers, Italian boy-band opera trio (bopera?) Il Volo is basically a Homebrand version of Il Divo – their names are even pretty much interchangeable.
This is a stirring ballad, and the boys are pretty good looking, but it’s hard to see why they’re rated so highly. Don’t the bookies know how badly popera does at Eurovision? While they’ll be sure to get the grannies voting, I don’t think they’ll end up on top of the scoreboard on Grand Final night. Estonia – Elina Born and Stig Rästa – Goodbye to Yesterday This is one of the Eurovision fans’ favourites, and people seem to be loving the moody, slightly hipster-retro vibe of this duo. Since the unexpected success last year of second-placed Dutch duo The Common Linnets, everyone’s jumped on the bandwagon and there are heaps of duos in this year’s contest.
But I think these two have very little chemistry, and their on-stage performance at the Estonian national final was very static. Plus, and I know it seems weird to be criticising vocal stylings at Eurovision, to me their singing sounds particularly flat and tuneless. Russia – Polina Gagarina – A Million Voices Russia's back again to try and convince Europe that they’re nice guys, really. To do so this year, they’ve enlisted an appealing female singer with a huge ballad about peace – which is quite stirring and emotional, but also quite ironic when you consider the country’s recent political behaviour.
Of course, it’s not fair to blame poor old Polina for Putin – indeed, when I was in Copenhagen last year the booing and vitriol directed towards Russia’s teenaged twins seemed incredibly harsh – but it can be hard to look past the politics at Eurovision. Will we be heading back to Moscow in 2016? I don't think so.
Finland - Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät - Aina mun pitää (I always have to) This is a very difficult one. Finland’s entry this year has already received a fair bit of publicity, due to the fact that the members of the band Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät (PKN) all have developmental disabilities. The band has a wonderful backstory and it is truly heartwarming to see Eurovision embrace acts of all backgrounds. PKN’s backstage video interviews are particularly great, and they’ve shot up in the betting rankings thanks to all the pre-contest media coverage. However…the song is just terrible.
That is absolutely nothing to do with the abilities of the performers, but everything to do with the fact that it is impenetrable Finnish punk rock. The Finns have always had a predilection for heavy, dark music (their only winning Eurovision entry was the rubber-faced monsters from Lordi), and while that can sometimes have wide appeal, more often than not punk fans at Eurovision are a very niche group. Perhaps the best thing about the song is that it’s the shortest ever entered in the contest, clocking in at under 90 seconds. So I’m afraid it’s nul points from me for the song – but douze points for inclusivity and acceptance. Well done Finland.
United Kingdom – Electro Velvet – Still in Love With You It’s official. The UK have completely given up on Eurovision and are now treating it as a massive joke. Why else would they send this cheesy hot mess of a song performed by a Mick Jagger impersonator and a reject from The Voice?
I can understand that they were hurt last year, after putting in a huge effort with Molly – and receiving lots of positive vibes – only to crash out on the big night. The "everybody in Europe hates us" line once again got its regular Eurovision outing in the British press. But do they really think electro-jazz is the way to win Europe over? Have they accidentally teleported back to 1999, when Lou Bega was dominating the charts? It’s all very puzzling. Even the local press is embarrassed. I think it’s a worrying time for the UK’s participation in Eurovision. After the results of the recent elections and with an EU referendum on the cards – Electro Velvet sadly won’t be doing much to enhance pro-Europe sentiment in the UK.
Moldova - Eduard Romanyuta - I Want Your Love Things have been a bit hectic in Ukraine lately, and so they decided not to enter this year’s contest. Which is probably fair enough, but it’s also a huge shame, because Ukraine is excellent at Eurovision and always brings along a massive prop and scantily clad dancers for a giant hot mess of a show. However, never fear – Moldova’s here to bring us our dose of Ukrainian Eurovision!
Yes, this year Moldova decided to open their entry process to other countries, resulting in Ukrainian Eduard Romanyuta winning the right to represent the country. Sadly in the process he knocked out Moldovan legends The Sunstroke Project (famous for their epic sax solo in 2010, which you can experience on YouTube in a mesmerising 10-hour-loop), and there were widespread allegations of vote rigging after the final count. Young Eduard is so enthusiastic about going to Eurovision that he’s picking up the bill for the whole shebang (which means he’s probably also aware of the negative vibes towards him in Moldova). His song is a pretty standard cheesy-sleazy male Europop number, but at least it’s upbeat in a sea of ballads. Plus, if the first reports from rehearsals in Vienna are any indication, he’s putting on a stage show featuring naughty cops and a big prop (!) I don’t think it’ll be enough to get him over the line, but at least he’s providing a much-needed dose of Eurovision crazy in the bland mix this year.
Armenia really, really want to win Eurovision. This has become even more obvious since their neighbour and bitter enemy Azerbaijan took the crown back in 2011.
So each year they go all out…but they just can't seem to crack the Eurovision magic formula.
This year’s effort is, on the surface, a dramatic musical-theatre style ballad with a flashy gimmick - one singer is Armenian, the other five have Armenian heritage and represent the Armenian diaspora from each continent: Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia and America. Sort of an Armenian Power Rangers, if you will:
However, when you listen to the song closely it has strong political overtones, with the singers urging the rest of the world (more specifically, Turkey) to "face the shadow" and "don't deny" the Armenian Genocide. You may have heard of this event recently, thanks to - of all people - Kim Kardashian. Kim has Armenian heritage, and visited the country to mark the genocide's 100 year anniversary (in Australia we were busy commemorating another event involving Turkey that happened on exactly the same date: 25 April 1915). But regardless of their political message, I don't think 2015 is Armenia's year.
Perhaps next year, if they're really serious, they ask one of their favourite members of the Armenian diaspora if they can borrow her husband for a bit.
It’s time to have a closer look at some of the entries vying for our votes at Eurovision 2015. Yes, that’s right – our votes! Because we’re sending Guy along to compete, Australians can actually vote for the first time this year, in both Semi Finals and the Grand Final.
The only catch? We have to be awake at 5:00 am to watch the live broadcast on SBS.
On the whole, it’s a pretty bland line up – there are very few traditional Eurovision shockers (Romanian vampires, Latvian pirates etc), but also hardly any that really stand out as victory material.
First, though, I’m going to look at the songs that get nul points from me. Stay tuned!
If I didn't know better, I'd assume that Guy Sebastian read my previous post.
As Eurovision month begins, all the contenders' songs have been released for public consumption - on YouTube, on CD, on TV and even in preview concerts around Europe.
And, amazingly, Guy is front-and-centre in everyone's minds - fans, commentators and bookies alike.
Instead of following through on his threat promise to sing a ballad from his latest album on the Eurovision stage, Guy went back to the studio with his band and whipped up Tonight Again, an upbeat little ditty with a hook that's sure to get stuck in your brain:
And it was absolutely the right move. This is an incredibly ballad-heavy year, and Tonight Again stands out from the pack as being one of only a handful of up-tempo numbers. Plus, Guy also followed my previous advice about getting out and about on the PR trail, embarking on a European charm offensive which saw him appear on Dutch and Austrian TV and cosy-up to last year's winner Conchita. He also won rave reviews for his performance at ESC in Concert in Amsterdam, a popular fan event held about a month before the contest that often makes the favourites clear. Since then, he's shot up in the bookies' rankings to third place, behind Italy and long-standing favourite Sweden. In fact, perhaps sensing an epic duel between the two countries, Swedish TV's Eurovision preview show Infor Eurovision gave Guy the top score (50/50) with all presenters absolutely loving his song - and throwing down the gauntlet to their own contestant. SBS and the Australian delegation must be rubbing their hands together with glee - it's all coming together for us as we approach May 23. Watch this space for more reviews, gossip and speculation in the days ahead!
