1. Have a good song
I've said it a million times before and it's a no-brainer. First and foremost, a country must have a good song to win Eurovision. It doesn't have to be the best song, but it has to be competent, well-written and no longer than three minutes. Plus ideally it should have a key change. There have been endless articles, blog posts and even PhDs written on the subject of what makes the ideal Eurovision song, but there’s no surefire winning formula. Obviously as times change, so too does the style of song that voters prefer. In the 70s and 80s, cheesy pop was king (think ABBA and Bucks Fizz). Then, in the 90s, Ireland dominated the competition with a surge of Celtic ballads that spawned countless copycats. In the 00s, big, dancey ethno-pop was in favour – like Ukraine’s Ruslana and Turkey’s Sertab Erener. Today it’s harder to pick what voters will choose – but in general they seem to be going for songs with a more modern sound, like Loreen’s Euphoria which won for Sweden in 2012.
At his press conference this morning, Guy said he was choosing between two songs from his current album to perform at Eurovision – and they’re both ballads. This is dangerous territory. It is much trickier to win with a ballad at Eurovision these days if you don’t have a good show and memorable quirk (see below), like Conchita from Austria last year. Guy would be much better off doing something up tempo, in the same vein as Like a Drum (which is from his current album but ineligible due to Eurovision rules as it was released in October 2013).
2. Put on a good show
Another no-brainer, but it really is important. A country can have an incredible song, but completely cock up its chances by putting on a mess of a stage show. Similarly, an ordinary song can be lifted to the top of the leaderboard by a fantastic spectacle on stage. All recent winners have had very strong, slickly-produced stage shows that have lingered in the minds of voters. Conchita went for a powerful spot-lit opening last year, Emmelie de Forrest chose a hunky drummer and tin-whistler to provide some whimsy in 2013, Loreen had a powerfully-lit modern-dance arrangement in 2012 and the very ordinary Running Scared brought it home for Azerbaijan in 2011 thanks mostly to a spectacularly sleek show that included a fireworks curtain.
The "slicky-produced" element is important. Many Eurovision entrants believe strongly in the principle of "more is more", and while that's what makes Eurovision an entertaining car-crash, it ultimately doesn't win votes. Case in point: Ukraine’s penchant for massive props or Ireland’s entry from last year – a fine song with an insane Riverdance fever-dream of a stage show. We most definitely can’t repeat the crazy-kitsch Aussie-ness of last year’s interval act.
But the performance also can’t be too boring – a solitary dude with a piano on stage won’t cut it, I’m afraid Guy. There also needs to be some eye-candy – and unfortunately Guy also lets us down in this arena (but I guess at least he doesn’t still look like this). If he can recruit some sexy backing singers/dancers, then he may be on the right track.
3. Be memorable
Of course, you can be incredibly competent and have a good song and stage show that impresses the professional juries, but still get nowhere in Eurovision thanks to the 50 per cent of votes coming from the general public. That’s why you also need to be memorable. Eurovision is a marathon TV event – this year there will be 27 songs in the final, and by the end viewers will be so drunk/tired/bamboozled they'll just want to vote for something easy to remember. Take last year for example – "bearded lady", "boobs" and "country music" made people easily remember the Austrian, Polish and Dutch entries when it came to televoting time.
So, Guy needs to make his mark and stand out from the entries around him. Not all other countries’ selections have been announced as yet, but of those chosen so far there are many solo female singers and groups, so as a solo male he will at least be a bit different. Plus, the novelty, one-off factor of an Australian entrant will also be sure to give him an added bonus. Or encourage the haters – either way, viewers probably won’t ignore him completely.
4. Avoid the death traps
This sounds simple, but there are both obvious and not-so-obvious traps Eurovision entrants can fall into. The first is choosing the musical genres that are guaranteed to turn-off the Eurovision voters in droves: rap and hip hop. Though several countries have tried, rap and hip hop entries have never, ever gone down well at the contest. Given the popularity of these genres globally, this is somewhat baffling – however perhaps makes a bit more sense when you see the efforts of the UK in 2006 and Montenegro in 2012. Unfortunately Guy’s predilection for R&B might steer him too close to these two genres, which could prove his downfall.
A more obvious pitfall is singing badly on the night. Remember, Eurovision is a live event and performers must sing live – there is no lip syncing. The UK’s Jemini in 2003 is a perfect example of what happens when singers go off-key – nul points. Luckily, this shouldn't be a problem for Guy – he proved yet again in this morning’s press conference that he has a great live singing voice, and he’s got loads of experience performing to large audiences so shouldn't get stage fright.
Finally, don’t take the piss. Yes, the contest is ridiculous and cheesy and over-the-top, but Australia’s playing on Eurovision's turf and we need to respect the competition. As I've mentioned previously on this blog, novelty acts which poke fun at the competition never do well. This shouldn't be a problem given Guy’s choosing a song from his current album, but he needs to make sure he doesn't come across as above-it-all when he’s on stage in Vienna.
5. Go on a European charm offensive
Hopefully SBS and Sony (Guy’s label) will be able to send him to Europe for a round of pre-contest promotion. This is even more crucial because we’re competing directly in the Final, so we don’t have the Semi-Final performance and pre-publicity to build anticipation. What many people don’t realise about Eurovision is that for the contestants, it’s not just that one (or two) nights up there on the stage – they travel across the continent for weeks beforehand doing public performances, TV spots and media interviews in order to build their profiles ahead of the contest. In many countries, the winner’s single is already in the charts before any votes are even cast. Conchita is a great example of the media charm offensive. Last year she did countless interviews before the contest – being gracious and charming in every single one – so by the time the Semi-Final rolled around, most people around Europe knew her and had heard her song, and were already planning to vote for her.
That’s why Guy needs to appear on Swedish breakfast TV, perform at concerts in Amsterdam and schmooze with reporters in Malta. He’s also got to cosy up to the hard-core Eurovision fans, some of whom are already quite miffed that Australia is even being allowed to compete in the first place. And of course, a key demographic he needs to embrace is the gay community – and this may be difficult given that he has previously been a very publicly devout Christian, although he’s recently come out in support of gay marriage and discussed his changing relationship with the church.
We’ll have to wait and see until the official song announcement to get a true idea of Guy’s chances. The bookies have him as sixth favourite – let’s see if that changes as we get closer to 23 May.
